As we wrap up 2024 and look toward a new year—and a new administration—many are wondering what the real estate market might look like in 2025. Will home sales rise or fall? What does history tell us about post-election years? Let’s break down why 2025 could be a great time to buy or sell.
Election Years Slow Down Real Estate—But Only Temporarily
It’s a known pattern: election years bring a bit of hesitation to the housing market. Fall typically sees a seasonal dip in home sales, but this dip can deepen slightly in an election year as buyers and sellers hit the brakes, waiting to see who will be in the White House. Why? Uncertainty. People are less likely to make big decisions when they’re unsure about the future.
In fact, a recent Redfin survey showed that 23% of first-time buyers are choosing to wait until after the election to make their move. It’s a pause that’s happened in election years before and will likely continue this year.
The Election Year “Pause” Doesn’t Last Long
Here’s the good news: just because sales slow down doesn’t mean they vanish. Historically, the market bounces back after an election year, with home sales increasing 82% of the time in the year following a presidential election. This rebound happens as the election dust settles, bringing a renewed sense of stability.
Buyers and sellers feel more confident, which gets the market moving again. This pattern aligns with recent projections, too: we’re on pace to sell around 4.6 million homes this year, with expectations for 5.2 million homes sold in 2025.
What Does 2025 Have in Store?
If history holds true, we can expect a rebound in home sales next year. Here’s why 2025 might be your year to act:
- Rising Confidence: Post-election years often bring increased buyer and seller confidence. With the political landscape a bit clearer, people feel more comfortable moving forward.
- More Inventory: Sellers who held off in 2024 may list their homes in 2025, providing more options for buyers.
- Growing Demand: With many first-time buyers waiting out the election, there’s potential for a surge in buyer activity once 2025 kicks off.
While it’s normal for real estate activity to slow down during election years, that pause is temporary. If you’re considering buying or selling, 2025 is shaping up to be a promising year for both. So, if you’ve been waiting for the right moment, keep an eye on the market—because post-election years like 2025 typically bring opportunities to make your real estate dreams a reality.
